The Case for, and Against, Mike Mussina

After the Baseball Writers Association of America failed to elect a single player to the National Baseball Hall of Fame on Wednesday, the time has come to take a look at next year's ballot. Among the players eligible for the Hall in 2014 include former Hagerstown Sun and rigthander Mike Mussina.

From 1991-2008, Mussina established himself as one of baseball' most productive and consistent pitchers. And while his final totals are exceptional, the question whether he has earned a place in baseball's most prestigious group has no easy answer.

This post will look at the cases both for and against Mussina and analyze his career through three separate factors: his overall statistics, comparisons against both pitchers from his era and current Hall of Famers, and perhaps the most important linchpin  the current voting climate. After evaluating those points, a prediction will be made as to whether Mussina will ever be enshrined in Cooperstown.

The Numbers

During the span of his career, Mike Mussina was able to amass some impressive statistics. Finishing with a 270-153 career record, he was annually among the best pitchers in the game during his peak. From 1995-2003, he averaged 16 wins a season, with a 1.164 WHIP, 3.91:1 K:BB ratio, 3.64 ERA, 126 ERA+ and 222 innings pitched. 

That stretch was indicative of the fact that Mussina was one of the most durable pitchers in baseball, as he threw over 200 innings a total of 12 times, including an American League-leading 237.2 innings with the Baltimore Orioles in 2000. He also looks good under the measure of Wins Above Replacement for pitchers (WAR), a stat that perfectly reflects his value. Along with leading the American League in WAR for pitchers with a 6.8 figure in 2001, Mussina ranked in the top 5 in the stat seven times, including a second place finish in 1992. With his lifetime total of 78.1, he ranks twentieth all-time in WAR for pitchers. 

Other reflections of his prolonged success include the fact that he earned 5 All-Star selections, won 18 or more games six times, finished in the top five of Cy Young Award voting 6 times, and in the top ten 9 times. Furthermore, Mussina had multiple top 5 finishes in stats such as WHIP (10), ERA+ (7), BB/9 (9), K/9 (5), strikeouts (6), wins (7) and W-L% (4). His W-L% in 1992, .783, was a league-leading finish for Mussina, who at the time was 23 and in just his second Major League season.

The stats reflected above indicate that Mussina placed himself among the best pitchers of his era and is deserving of Hall of Fame consideration. However, a closer look at several stats will work against him.

One argument that could be made against Mussina is that his peak ended too abruptly. He was never selected as an All-Star during his time with the New York Yankees, 2001-2008, and began a gradual decline after 2001. From 2002-2007, Mussina averaged a mere 187 innings pitched, a 4.12 ERA, 108 ERA+, a high 1.240 WHIP and 9.2 H/9 rate. During that stretch, he had an ERA above 4.00 a total of four times, including a career high 5.15 in 2007. Other than 2008, the season he won 20 games for the first time, he did not reach the 200 inning plateau after 2003. Furthermore, that stretch also included the two highest H/9 rates of his career, 10 in 2005 and 11.1 in 2007.

It could be argued that the above paragraph is merely a representation of a gradual decline that pitchers will experience during their careers. Yet, even during his prime, from 1992-2001, Mussina's case still has a few holes. Never in his career did he finish one season as a top-five leader in the pitching triple crown categories (W/ERA/K) and his placement in Cy Young voting was sporadic. He never earned more than 2 first place votes in a single Cy Young race, and never finished above second place. Much of this is because of how little Mussina actually led the league in key statistics.

During his entire career, including the stretch identified as his prime, Mussina never led the league in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP or ERA+. The only time he led the league in wins was 1995, which remains the only season in which he led the league in more than one category, as he finished as the leader in shutouts (4) and BB/9 (2). Other than that season, the only times Mussina finished ahead of his peers in any statistic was 1992 (W-L%), 2000 (IP), 1996 and 2008 (games started).

Using Bill James' Hall of Fame scores from Baseball-Reference.com, Mussina's totals reflect that he, in fact, is a Hall of Famer. One exception to James' findings, however is the the black ink test, which measures how often a player leads his league in important categories. This brings about an interesting paradox for voters, which is debating whether Mussina was one of the best pitchers of his era, or was a good, but not great pitcher that received inflated numbers due to durability more than dominance. That factor leads to the next question, which is how Mussina stacks up against his peers and current Hall of Famers.

How Mussina Compares

Another interesting metric available through Baseball-Reference is the Jaffe WAR Score System (JAWS), which was developed by sabermetrician Jay Jaffe in 2004 "as a means to measure a player's Hall of Fame worthiness by comparing him to the players at his position who are already enshrined...". According to this system, Mussina places within Hall of Fame standards. His JAWS is 60.3, which ranks 30th all time among starting pitchers and above the average standard for a Hall of Famer (57.8). Placing below Mussina in this category is a group of Hall of Fame pitchers that includes Nolan Ryan, Juan Marichal, Jim Palmer and Don Drysdale. 

In the context of his era, Mussina is still below likely future Hall of Famers in Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, and Randy Johnson, as well as currently eligible Curt Schilling and Roger Clemens. This measure, however, does place him ahead of a potential pair of Hall of Famers in Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. 

Should Mussina be inducted, he would compare nicely to current Hall of Famers in several statistics. He ranks 33rd all time in wins, 40th in W-L%, 20th in WAR for pitchers and 19th in strikeouts. If you were to place Mussina in a group that included only Hall of Famers, he still has considerable merits. His WAR would rank 17th, his W-L% would tie for 12th with Jim Palmer, overall win total split in 25th all time with Burleigh Grimes and 12th in strikeouts, ahead of pitchers such as Cy Young and Warren Spahn. In all of those measures, he comes out well ahead of the average Hall of Famer. 

Within that same group, however, some of his flaws are more evident. His career ERA is 3.68, which is not only far removed from the average number of 2.96, but places him at the bottom of list. Among current Hall of Famers, Mussina's career ERA would rank as the third highest, behind only Hank O'Day and Red Ruffing. ERA remains an important statistic among Hall of Fame voters, many of whom have not voted for Jack Morris because of the fact that he would become the highest ERA of all Hall of Famers with a 3.90 mark. Though Mussina still comes out lower than Morris, his ERA would be among the highest of all current inductees. Furthermore, there are four pitchers ahead of Mussina on the all-time wins list (Bobby Mathews, Tommy John, Tony Mullane and Jim Kaat) that are not in the Hall of Fame. 

Another factor is that Mussina never won a Cy Young Award. Counting the period beginning in 1967, when the accolade began to be awarded in both the American and National Leagues, only Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Burt Blyleven, Phil Niekro, Goose Goosage and Hoyt Wilhem were inducted to the Hall of Fame despite never winning the prize. Ryan was the only pitcher in that group to be inducted on the first attempt, as he is baseball's all-time leader in strikeouts. However, Sutton and Niekro were not enshrined until their fifth ballots, Wilhem had to wait until his 8th turn, Gossage on his 9th and Blyleven on his 14th. 

Between 2014-2015, the following group of pitchers will become eligible for the Hall of Fame: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson, all of whom not only pitched in Mussina's era, but won the Cy Young Award. In that group, Smoltz is also the only pitcher that did not win the award once. Furthermore, Mussina will also face competition from non-award winners in Jack Morris (who will face his final judgement from the BBWAA in 2014) and Curt Schilling. Another soon-to-be candidate worth noting is Trevor Hoffman, who is second all time with 601 saves. 

That aforementioned group did not include 7 time Cy Young-winner Roger Clemens. Clemens, however, is mired in the controversy of performance enhancing drugs and finished with only 36.2% of the vote on Wednesday. The issue of the greatest players from the steroid era, which includes the era in which Mussina played, has created a complicated situation for voters. With that current climate in mind, it is important to consider how it will impact Mike Mussina. 

Current Voting Climate

The result of the 2013 Hall of Fame induction indicate the tough questions that current BBWAA members face. Should players who have been proven as steroid users be inducted to the Hall of Fame? What if a player receives significant suspicion, but never failed a drug test or have no pressing evidence against them? And finally, should steroids matter, especially considering that the Hall of Fame already includes its fare share of imperfect people? Regardless of one's view on the issue, one thing is clear. The BBWAA has several ballots in the future that include only a hand full of players that have escaped steroid suspicion, but were still part of a tainted era in baseball history. The current voting climate is not at all what the Hall of Fame is accustomed to, nor will it lead to a straight forward, uniform, process. 

Considering Mussina's role in light of steroids, there are a few factors that work for him. He has never been seriously suspected of steroid use, nor has evidence ever emerged that points to him as a user of any performance enhancing drugs. Also, he managed to post an impressive career as a starting pitcher in an age of inflated offensive numbers and never left the American League East, arguably in terms of lineup quality and ballpark configuration, the toughest division for pitchers. 

Yet, Mussina is not unique in the fact that he is not suspected of using performance enhancing drugs. Several players of his era who belong in that group, such as Fred McGriff and Edgar Martinez, have not come close to making the Hall of Fame, even though that argument is on their side. Furthermore players whose primes occurred before the steroid era, such as Tim Raines, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Don Mattingly and Jack Morris, have not been inducted to this point, and Morris is the only player that as of 2013 appears close to induction. This is all occurring as players connected with steroid use like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmerio post stagnant vote totals. 

It is true that this voting climate will not last long, as writers/voters such as Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports predicted that next year will include at least three players (Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas). However, the current situation will lead to a crowded ballot, meaning that players perceived as clean and deemed more deserving like Glavine and Maddux will be inducted before Mussina, while figures like Clemens and Bonds will remain points of debate for quite some time. Those factors will lead to a crowded ballot, and one where Mussina may find himself caught between the two sides for sometime. 

Prediction

Much can be said both for and against Mike Mussina. On one hand, he emerged as a one of the best pitchers in an era of high offensive numbers, and his achievements stack up nicely with current Hall of Famers. At the same time, it can be debated if he was truly one of the top starting pitchers of his period and his high ERA will likely work against him. 

For the prediction, there are several factors that are not known yet that will contribute to his final placement. Mussina will likely not be a first ballot Hall of Famer, and like other non-Cy Young Award winners, could wait at least 5 years for induction. Research conducted by Hall voter and columnist Joe Posnanski shows an important link between first year percentage placement and eventual induction. According to his findings, if a player earns at least 50% of the vote on their first ballot, they are virtually assured of induction. As the percentage drops below 50, the likely hood of that player reaching the Hall of Fame decrease, and chances of enshrinement are greatly reduced if the individual comes in below 30%. These facts show that the first year will be crucial to Mussina reaching the Hall of Fame and that next year's vote totals will be an important link as to whether he reaches Cooperstown. 

With that in mind, the conclusion of this post is that Mussina will reach the Hall of Fame, provided that he places with at least 30-35% of the vote in 2014. Along with the fact that he produced strong numbers in a hitter-friendly era, metrics such as JAWS and WAR indicate that he compares favorably to Hall of Famers of another era. 

The key to Mussina's induction will be the group of voters that rely more on statistics such as JAWS, WAR, ERA+ and K:BB ratio more than wins and ERA. This sector of the electorate poll was crucial in the choice of former starting pitcher Burt Blyleven, and in recent years has helped to build gradually increasing support for players like Tim Raines. The claim often with sabermetric users is that traditional stats like wins and ERA are not always the best indicator of a pitcher's success, as many factors that contribute to those numbers (e.g., ballpark configuration and quality of team) are beyond a pitcher's control. 

Traditional statistic users will still find favor with Mussina in his win total and strikeout numbers, but some will likely balk at his ERA. However, if the gap between these two sets of voters can be bridged over the course of 15 years, Mussina figures to eventually reach the needed 75% to make the Hall of Fame. 

Mike Mussina's possible induction is a long way off, and many of his peers figure to beat him to Cooperstown. Yet, he still managed to compile a standout career from 1991-2008 and is a likely candidate for the National Baseball Hall of Fame.